A tropical storm once forecast to meander harmlessly around the middle Atlantic might, maybe, just possibly, smack us upside the head next week. Or it might stay out to sea.
It's just too early to tell but, the National Hurricane Center says Henri keeps moving left on the weather maps, which now show the greater Boston area as within the Cone for a full-bore hurricane sometime Mondayish which means potentially deadly rip currents and swells along our beaches later this week:
One complicating factor is that several of the models show a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada, which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction.
The hurricane center will be dispatching planes and weather balloons into the area in and around Henri in the hopes of getting batter data with which to predict whether we have to start buying plywood or whether we'll just have to keep our deck umbrellas unfurled. But in the meantime:
Swells from Henri could reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.