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If mayoral election were held today, the results would mirror those of Walsh vs. Connolly, poll suggests

WGBH reports that polling it had done in the days before Michelle Wu formally announced she was running for mayor next year showed Mayor Walsh with a big lead - but that Wu was leading in West Roxbury, Roslindale, Jamaica Plain and Mission Hill, which would roughly mirror the results of the 2013 race, in which Walsh beat John Connolly to replace Tom Menino.

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Connolly was a West Roxbury/Roslindale candidate. JP & Mission Hill have changed little since 2013 and Wu will win there.

The local MAGA Rose twitter, high on their Markey win, is getting out ahead of their skis. The "I speak for the progressive and minority community" will work for progressive messaging but not necessarily for the minority majority community. Progressives don't want to hear it, but some in the minority majority community are asking why Wu.

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I would not count on that.
Walsh support is not as high as it once was and Connolly was seen as no different than Walsh.
this race will be the first with a clear difference, also West Roxbury is now younger and less white than it was 8 years ago

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Tito Jackson didn't make much hay as a candidate who 'better' represented the browner side of Boston, did he? If Campbell comes in and loses the primary, then that issue would seem settled. (Campbell could well win, but we're talking about Wu and the minority voters.)

If Wu actually got people to vote for her who usually don't vote for mayor at all (i.e. the vast majority of us in Boston), then maybe it's different. I think every challenger candidate thinks they can solve that puzzle. We'll see.

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https://apps.bostonglobe.com/metro/graphics/2017/10/election-map/

Where does Walsh lose wards to Wu? Roslindale, HP, Back Bay, South End maybe?

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From my conversations with those in the South End, Wu will lose spectacularly there. Her silence on Mass/Cass has been deafening.

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anything? Her silence pales in comparison to his inaction when in charge.

Not saying you're wrong, just asking why he'd get a positive vote having, you know, been in charge the whole time this disaster has unfurled.

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to compare progressives and Markey voters strident about supporting their causes to MAGA nihilists who hate democracy and everyone in it who isn't them. But I guess you got me to respond, so good job, troll?

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MAGA Rose twitter is as vile and cultish as Trump Twitter. Neither can accept that there are Americans that don't think like them. They view anyone not carrying their water as an enemy not deserving of opinion or speech. Both are exceptional at alienation.

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Each side is equally vile. Sure, buddy.

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Trump Twitter - Biden is a rapist
MAGA Rose Twitter - Biden is a rapist

Trump Twitter - Biden is cognitively impaired.
MAGA Rose twitter - Biden is cognitively impaired.

Trump Twitter - That Soros
MAGA Rose Twitter - Those Zionists

Trump Twitter - Those Rioters (but not Cliven Bundy and not the KKK or Bugaloo boys...)
MAGA Rose Twitter - We have no choice but to burn it down

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The local MAGA Rose twitter, high on their Markey win, is getting out ahead of their skis.

What does your collection of strawmen have to do with the Wu campaign or her supporters?

Could it be you just don't like Ms. Wu and you're trying to tar anyone who supports her run with some cherry picked statements of a small number of extremists on the left?

Naaah.

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reaction to criticism is revealing. I also understand that a highly qualified candidate like Michelle Wu will be left at the political altar if a more attractive, more progressive candidate gets into the race. There are no better strawmen connoisseurs than MAGA Rose Twitter. Look no further than Clinton 2016 and Warren 2020. How dare they challenge the Bernieverse.

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I was a Warren supporter, my dude. Go back and look at my post history if you don't believe me. Probably time to pack up those strawmen and go home.

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"Progressives don't want to hear it, but some in the minority majority community are asking why Wu."

-Progressives probably won't hear it. They often tend to simply ignore any cognitive dissonance that contradicts their views. Just look at the reaction to Elizabeth Warren's less than stellar presidential campaign.

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Anyone who thinks/wants Wu to win

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blaming Warren for a lackluster campaign and even more frustrated that minority communities don't understand that they alone know what is best for them. The Twitter war is waged on their laptop, in their kitchen, in Cambridge or Newton or even better Eastie, where they've gentrified out the working poor.

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Michelle is going to make riding the MBTA a central theme in her campaign. She should start by calling on the MBTA to start issuing fines for not wearing masks on the MBTA similar to the policy instituted by the MTA in New York.

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As I recall, turn out was better in the Walsh areas. If early & mail-in voting makes it easier for more people to vote, it's going to help Wu.

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Click on the map link above and scroll down. Turn out was highest in Walsh won wards but since he won most wards, that doesn't mean much. Some of the biggest turnout was in places he won narrowly (JP) although there were some outliers like south Dot which is the heart of Walsh's political base.

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If Michelle Wu is already getting as many votes as John Connolly did, that's pretty good news for Wu. Connolly ran a citywide, expensive mayoral campaign to come up with that number, while Wu (at the time of the poll) had experienced one campaign announcement, offered up by her opponent.

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Tito had a lot of controversial stands on issues that turned him off to many voters. Wu is pretty well liked and respected. I would bet that most Bostonians would think of her in either neutral terms (who is she?) to positive terms. That's not a bad base to start from.

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I voted against Walsh last time and not really for Tito. He was just the other option.

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And thankfully, the WBUR 2013 results map is still up.

The geographical divide is fascinating. Basically, from the border with Dedham, Walsh won everything to the east of Washington Street until you get to Forest Hills, then the line moved up the Southwest Corridor with Connolly having a bulwark in the northern end of the South End and the Seaport.

Early polling in interesting, and it gives an idea of what is ahead, but as noted, Wu hadn't even declared (though her candidacy was expected) and Walsh hasn't quite pivoted from governing mode to campaign mode.

I've seen enough campaigns (and voted against Menino) enough times to know that Wu's best chance of being mayor come January 2022 is to hope that Biden gives Walsh a job (if Biden wins, of course.)

(EDITED for an error on the year the next mayoral term begins.)

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One of the precincts that's east of Washington St. on the WBUR map is the precinct where Michelle Wu actually lives. That and several others nearby are in Roslindale (despite the map calling it Jamacia (sic) Plain), and Roslindale is one of the neighborhoods predictably showing strength for Wu.

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And when I zoomed on the map, I noticed that the line in the South End was in fact Mass Ave, meaning that most of the area around the infamous Mass/Cass area voted for Connolly.

I was snooping a bit before the primary election on the internet. In 2013, the house where Gretchen Van Ness now lives (I'm assuming it was her house then, but I didn't want to snoop that much) had a Rob Consalvo for Mayor sign in the front lawn. I guess things can change.

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Her campaign isn't even a week old, how many of the people polled found out she was running because of the question?

She's done well in at-large city elections, so it isn't a leap to say she has a decent chance.

But geeze Louise, wouldn't a more realistic snapshot of how she could do might be to wait until she at least gets some campaign ads up, got her ground game started?

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