Dr. Jeremy Faust, an ER doctor at Brigham and Women's, takes a look at recent Covid-19 data in Massachusetts and is not liking what he's seeing. Really not liking it:
We need to ban indoor dining immediately.
We need some other restrictions as well for a few weeks.
If we don’t, our R could skyrocket and a full shutdown may become necessary.
R is a value for the typical number of people somebody with Covid-19 infects. If it's below 1, that's good, means that the typical Covid-19 patient is likely in quarantine and not spreading the disease to others. Massachusetts's rate is now 1.20.
In a series of tweets yesterday, Faust explains. He starts by saying he's going to re-start publishing Massachusetts "excess mortality" data - numbers that show the number of total deaths per week now compared to data from the same period in past years:
I‘ve been monitoring this all summer but stopped publishing when we had many weeks without excess deaths.
Today, I see signs that our streak ended.
In addition, I should add that I believe our relatively long shelter in place and phased re-opening meant that we could see this coming.
Cases were <200 per day for a while.
Now we see that doubled.
The point of reopening when cases are low is to be willing to make behavioral modifications (partial shutdown/restrictions) in MOMENTS LIKE THIS.
H/t Adam Castiglioni.
State makes it official: Boston has a high rate of coronavirus.