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Real-estate market falters in Norfolk County

Franklin Matters posts a report by the Norfolk County Register of Deed on January real-estate transactions in the county, which includes Brookline: Sales are down, both in volume and total value, and fewer people are taking out mortgages. But foreclosures are down as well.

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Comments

The real estate market has been growing at an unsustainable rate for several years now. I wonder if this is the beginning of the bubble bursting.

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Which means rental prices will be going up.

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I don't understand. How does that figure?

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Maybe not.

I'm not entirely convinced that the two are tied as closely as they have been.

It is more complicated than individuals saying "do I rent or do I buy". If someone is transferred out, they may choose to rent their property for a time. If a lot of people are transferred and don't want to sell just yet, that means more rentals.

We also aren't clear on what is causing the drop. If it is a result of fewer people moving in and more moving out, then rental prices will also drop as demand drops for both sales and rentals.

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Doesn't affect stuff on the low end or in the middle, but does bite at the high end of Brookline prices where all the bidding wars have tended to happen.

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You just described a new tax regulation, developed by Republicans that taxes rich people more. IMPOSSIBLE, right?

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It taxes rich people in blue states. Those bitten by SALT are much more likely to (a) live in a state with relatively high state/local taxes, and (b) live in a state with high housing costs.

There are plenty of people in MA who live in 2000 square foot homes and, after mortgage, utilities, car payment, and daycare, don't have a whole lot left. Same as in South Carolina. The difference is that in MA that costs another $100k per year for the same purchases.

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As the market rocketed along it made sense for people to invest in real estate instead of stocks. I mean people that are not necessarily very rich, but obviously not poor. With low interest rates, people would borrow to acquire these investments (as you would never do with stocks). Because of the multiple tax advantages, you would buy a larger home rather than more than one smaller home. And all along you could fold your living expense (rent) into your investment. This home was meant to be their retirement. But the market is very high. I don't think that it is a bubble, in the traditional sense. This kind of savings model has caused the most recent generations to be raised in homes with more square footage than people actual need.

it is hard to say what is going to happen with the current tax situation. A lot of people are paying more taxes this year, and they will remember that in the voting booth. The housing crisis creates pressure to tax real estate.

Anyway, I'm rambling. The truth is diversifying is harder but more reliable.

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I have a $400k mortgage and the TCJA has raised my household's federal tax liability 20% this year.

This will hurt mid-market prices too, for those who can do the math.

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The foreclosure crisis ten years convinced many that homeownership was a scam. So instead of buying when the market was low many moved into apartments and declared themselves smart. Then when rents and sales prices both went up they became confused.

There has to be a useful lesson in all of that somewhere.

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Might let a little air out and go a 2-3 year period with flat valuations. I see this as a good thing for the economic viability of Boston in the decade to come and, who knows -- if we can keep new housing starts up, we just might be able to hold the line on price for 5 years or more.

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Or normalizing?

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What about in Boston / Suffolk County? Any information? Steve? Hello? nm

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Anecdotal evidence it's not as hot as it was, but no hard stats.

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That's the county as a whole. I think Brookline isn't getting any cheaper.

Zillow says Brookline values are up 4.9% over the past year.

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Looking at the value of my home doing a percentage change calculation, it’s up 6.32% YoY.

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How interesting..

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I didn't know that Brookline was part of Norfolk County. It's bordered by 6 Boston (Suffolk County) neighborhoods...wow.

Annex already, jeez!

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In Dedham, they're building on every empty lot in town. And they're all over-sized, two-garage buildings. Someone is buying them.

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